The article discusses the recent announcement by the Greek Public Power Corporation (ΔΕΗ) regarding a €4 billion capital increase, which is one of the largest in Greek market history. This move is seen as a transition from a focus on energy transition to a broad European growth story.
JP Morgan has a positive outlook on the company, maintaining an “overweight” rating and a target price of €21. The capital increase represents around 60% of the company’s market capitalization before the announcement and is part of a new €24 billion investment plan for 2026-2030, aimed at establishing ΔΕΗ as a leading player in Central and Southeast Europe.
The new targets include an EBITDA of €4.6 billion by 2030, up from €2 billion in 2025, and a projected installed capacity of 24.3 GW, with renewable energy sources contributing 18.8 GW. By the end of the decade, nearly 45% of the production portfolio is expected to be outside Greece, extending to markets like Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia.
Importantly, the capital increase is viewed as a growth acceleration tool rather than merely a defensive financial measure. Only 15% of the new investment program will be financed through new funds, with the remainder coming from operational cash flows and leverage. This approach explains why the market perceives this capital increase as growth financing rather than a mere need for capital.
There’s also a noteworthy focus on the new data center segment, with a project in Kozani that could contribute an annual EBITDA of €170 million. JP Morgan highlights that these unregulated investment projects aim for internal returns of up to 14%.
Overall, the investment thesis is shifting from a utility-focused valuation to one that emphasizes the opportunity for growth and scale in a tightening market, which justifies a more premium valuation of the stock.